Chapter 127

Chapter 127

Misjudgment

Turn back time, one week ago.

[ Stop the war in South Africa and withdraw. And with the war expenses saved there quickly foster refrigerator new technology and conquer the European food economy.]

This topic secretly exchanged between politicians at Jean-Paul Durand's investiture party, like any plotting front and back cut and only the most stimulating part reported by the media.

[ Finally Britain stops the war in South Africa. ]

November 18 Monday morning, even if nuances a bit different certain this sentence plastered on newspaper headlines of countries around the world.

Because the British government concerned about the shock of its citizens and pre-distributed the article on Sunday the previous day.

Fortunately no disagreement on the fact that a meaningless and consumptive war no matter who, so London citizens cheered on the streets, and support statements continued one after another in India, Canada, Australia etc.

In fact Britain already seized all important strategic points to defend the Cape of Good Hope so nothing much to lose.

But the problem elsewhere.

The fact itself that Britain voluntarily stopped a war anyone seeing all won sufficient to plunge world society into shock.

If an ordinary country might not even pay attention. But this different.

That decision the 'world's strongest country British Empire' made.

Pax Britannica.

After the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815, almost never missed world hegemony even once for nearly a century.

On earth what is Britain's intention?

Why didn't push the Orange Republic to the end?

That British Empire 'absolutely' no way!

This clearly a trick!

World powers to extract the implications hidden in this political rhetoric, thoroughly rummaged recent few months' British trend documents to the point eyes bloodshot, held endless discussions locked in meeting rooms, and mobilized all countries' intelligence networks and clung to analysis.

This urgency not much different even across the Atlantic.

* * *

United States, Washington D.C, White House.

Presidential special advisory committee.

President Theodore Roosevelt flipped documents with an uncomfortable expression.

"Secretary of State John Hay. So the secretary's words, this a kind of 'kicking the ladder'...?"

John Hay.

A figure with the career of serving as US ambassador to Britain for 2 years from 1897, a top Britain expert even in the US.

The one who embraced Cuba from Spain into America's arms with the 1898 Treaty of Paris also exactly him.

Usually receiving deep trust from President Roosevelt, but this matter couldn't help but sweat.

Because a matter that burst without any notice at all.

Even subtly asking British diplomats in the US only saying they also don't know and consistent with feigning ignorance.

Ultimately he no choice but to write the report by blowing his intuition very 'part' into the various materials he analyzed.

Honestly speaking, he himself no confidence.

“Yes, Your Excellency the President. Assuming the worst case, possibility the British Empire reducing the power projected externally, and intending to fix the current power relations.”

“Fixing power relations...?”

“Yes, Your Excellency. If the British Empire converts strategy in the direction of ‘independizing’ colonies that don't greatly contribute to the domestic economy, this will act as a de facto shackle on emerging economic countries.”

“Hmm...”

“Sufficiently has reason.”

Secretary John Hay's intuition like this.

The British Empire no problem running the economic block even maintaining only the current Canada, India, Australia, Southeast Asia colonies.

So from now boldly abandoning all other colonies, and similarly agitating other countries to abandon colonies...?

Now the era of imperialism.

Britain held the most colonies, but not few second-rate powers accumulating wealth with much harsher exploitation policies than Britain.

The problem, the point that the country with the national power to maintain long-distance colonies and dispatch large-scale armies practically only Britain.

The reason other powers outwardly criticized the Boer War but inwardly cheered exactly here.

They hoped the Boer War becomes a lesson for their colonies.

The message of if resisting colonial rule immediately suppress with force like Britain so don't act up.

But such Britain not ending the Boer War and voluntarily withdrawing.

This a butterfly effect that can't be handled.

Even in other colonies by any chance...? the moment resisting even a bit with that thought, from there will fall into an endless quagmire.

America also no exception.

Currently America aiming to seize the Pacific sphere, Central America and South America's economic sphere.

Moreover even now how much effort putting to practically dominate the Panama Canal region.

Of course no resistance forces yet, but carelessness forbidden.

Literally the British Empire's jerkiness that the words 'kicking the ladder' perfectly fit.

America wanted to cut even very minor anxiety factors in the bud.

"Ask once more. The secretary predicting the British Empire will independize economically unimportant colonies, and induce other powers to abandon colonies too?"

"Yes, Your Excellency the President. In the current situation even just interfering so other powers can't make new colonies the British Empire becomes the most advantageous position."

"But they don't have cards, right? No particular method to interfere in other countries' colonial rule, nor means to economically pressure suitable."

The counterargument came from Secretary of the Navy John Davis Long.

A figure from Massachusetts governor origin, selected with the experience of working with Roosevelt during governor days.

Also an expansionist who has claimed have to expand overseas territories like the Philippines, Guam, Puerto Rico based on naval power and grow America's influence.

John Hay wiped the sweat on the forehead with the back of the hand again.

"No. Even if the British Empire only clearly reveals such grand strategy keynote, there will be countries willingly trying to join hands."

"...German Empire!"

"Huh..."

"The aim."

If a power that most dislikes Britain, Spain, France, Russia etc. accumulating wealth with endless colony expansion, by far the German Empire ranked 1st.

Because they even now criticizing Britain and France's overseas colony policies with newspaper editorials every day.

Germany jumped into overseas colony expansion the latest, so practically held colonies shabby.

All German New Guinea in the Pacific including the Mariana Islands, Marshall Islands.

Here the Habsburg royal family of Austria also disliked colonial expansion.

Because practically an inland country no room to interfere in other continents at all.

The place they can stretch hands and feet only the Balkan Peninsula, so even now doing all kinds of numbers trying to officially annex Bosnia-Herzegovina, but that side as the powder keg of Eastern Europe various Slavic nationalists running rampant so not easy.

"Moreover if Britain, Germany, Austria tentatively join hands the country that becomes most dangerous determined."

"...France and Belgium, right."

"Correct."

France and Belgium even now receiving international criticism with cruel colony exploitation policies in Africa.

The moment Britain escapes the moral yoke with colony abandonment, even this becomes a powerful pressure card.

The most dangerous Belgium.

Its lifeline no different from maintaining as a buffer zone of France and Germany, Britain, and because of that Belgium desperately heating up colony exploitation to grow national power.

If the moment France abandons Belgium for de-pressure and concentrates on domestic defense, the balance breaks in an instant.

That also not what Britain wants, so won't leave Germany to invade Belgium obediently, but the degree of economically digging aiming at gaps Britain also sufficient possibility of tolerating.

President Roosevelt unconsciously put some thought that floated in the head in an instant into the mouth.

"Wait, that also doesn't make sense. If I a poker player seem won't leave the cards to flow like that."

"Then...?"

"If the lowland countries lose status Britain also loses the buffer zone, and ultimately obvious will suffer damage like France. The one gaining benefit only Germany. Anyone seeing not so? Clearly more other aims. For example, if Britain hiding another joker card how?"

"...Joker words?"

"For example, such a card that can change the 3 strong structure to 2 strong."

"...Your Excellency, that hard to establish without a great war."

"So."

Roosevelt laughed self-mockingly and looked outside the window.

"A joke. Words tried to change the atmosphere. Draw the curtain a bit. Eyes hurt to death because of the sunlight. By the way, J.P. Morgan suddenly requesting an interview what reason?"

* * *

Russian Empire, Moscow, Kremlin Palace.

As soon as the news that Britain withdrawing from the Boer conveyed, an untimely celebration party held here.

Outside the window winter snow piled thickly, but inside the palace no leisure to feel the cold with light reflected on splendid chandeliers and jewels.

Handmade gold plates full of smoked sturgeon and caviar, pryanik, and nobles no leisure clapping to the sound of balalaika and clinking vodka glasses.

But Nicholas II who hosted the party somewhere reluctant expression.

"...But Minister Witte, really should see Britain withdrawing from the Boer as a positive signal for us?"

"Your Majesty, according to our operation. The meaning Britain no more capacity to maintain overseas colonial rule. Britain weakened. Pax Britannica also will end now."

"Indeed, dispatched hundreds of thousands of troops to a distant place like South Africa and waged war for several years so national power consumption tremendous. Thank you, minister."

The Russian Empire decided to treat Britain's Boer withdrawal as a victory of the Great Game.

Because didn't spare agitation sending spies all over Europe until leading to such results.

Of course, 100 percent misjudgment. Because the British government also at this time mobilized all countries' spy lines to the maximum and poured false information all around.

For a judgment made with insufficient information in a sudden situation quite the best analysis even for Russia, and logic sufficient.

So this a kind of Russian style 'as the mood goes' victory party.

"So that said, Your Majesty. Since Britain weakened now Russia also the time to reduce resources wasted overseas, and devote to internal development."

Sergei Witte. He the Russian Minister of Finance.

A semi-reformist who led industrialization and railroad construction, attracting foreign capital etc., always repeated the same words.

Too much money going overseas.

Among them quite a part flowing to France he pathologically disliked.

"Your Majesty, now Britain an old fox. On the other hand France gained potential unknown how far will grow after the republican revolution.

Not a country that can't handle vast colonies like Britain. Alone monopolizing the wealth coming from nearby North African colonies, and agricultural products produced from vast farmlands also becoming a powerful base. So now exactly the time to check France."

"Kkeung, minister. That talk already discussed as rejection that know."

"Your Majesty! But this time must seriously review!"

Minister Witte's claim always the same.

Destroy the Franco-Russian alliance, or at least renegotiation needed about loan interest rates.

The claim that if going like this Russia can't even grow and becomes France's economic colony.

France while dumping the huge defense line of Germany, Austria, Hungary, Britain to Russia only cared about the Rhine River themselves.

On that topic lending huge loans saying supporting the Russian economy, and tearing interest with high interest rates.

Even among Russian intellectuals full of dissatisfaction that if going like this within ten years Russia will be subordinated to the French financial world.

Military expenses as military expenses, interest as interest.

The fact that more than half of the Russian government bonds issued in 1900 went to French investors even now a top secret that can't be announced.

Nicholas II had a headache.

Because fought with the empress yesterday, now wanted to tilt the glass and rest even briefly rather than such conversation.

Ultimately left only one word of will think and dismissed Minister Witte with a gesture, but the conversation done not in a closed room but one side of the party hall so immediately spread among nobles.

And this conversation distorted even to 'Russia considering renegotiation of the Franco-Russian alliance with France' and flowed even to the French General Staff 2nd Bureau.

Director Santini this time also spat the pipe he was biting and stood up abruptly from the seat.

"Damn, what nonsense this again?!"

A serious top security threat.

Moreover not only this. Even intelligence that Germany planning untimely winter military training in the Rhine direction came in.

Direct relation between the two incidents? Or simply coincidence of timing overlapping? The problem, if relation and ignoring the risk to bear transcends imagination.

So he also just passed the important trend document from London held in the hand and committed the fatal mistake of running to the Élysée Palace.

The title of that document 'Report on the establishment of a large-scale industrial complex in the Greenwich district of Britain', and as related person in charge the famous emerging celebrity of Britain 'Jean-Paul Durand' recorded, Director Santini ultimately didn't realize.

And naturally, he even missed the intelligence that numerous machine tools that can operate several factories at once being made in London Britain.

That was the end.